Could a Cyberattack Lead to a Real War?
2022-02-15
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1International security experts have warned that internet attacks by major world powers on other governments could lead to a real war.
2But they say it is not easy to define what kind cyberattack would be considered an act of war.
3President Joe Biden said in July that if the United States ended up in a war with a major power it could "be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence."
4Biden made the comments to leaders of the U.S. intelligence community.
5Tensions are currently high between Russia and members of the NATO alliance over a possible conflict in Ukraine.
6Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine.
7U.S. and NATO officials have expressed concern that Russia may invade Ukraine.
8Some Western officials have also warned about the danger of Russia possibly launching harmful cyberattacks against Ukraine or NATO allies.
9But experts say there is no clear line for how severe a cyberattack would have to be before it resulted in military action.
10"The rules are fuzzy," said Max Smeets, director of the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative, to The Associated Press.
11"It's not clear what is allowed, what isn't allowed," he added.
12The U.S. and other NATO members have threatened to put economic restrictions on Russia if it sends troops into Ukraine.
13But it is less clear if such restrictions would be put in place if Russia launched a serious cyberattack.
14Currently, arms control treaties do not provide detailed guidelines on how state-backed cyberattacks should be dealt with.
15It can also be difficult to quickly identify who is behind such attacks.
16Criminals and independent attackers can also work together with governments, making it harder to target specific blame.
17In 2015, major world powers and others agreed at the United Nations on a set of 11 voluntary guidelines for international cyber behavior.
18But those guidelines have mostly been ignored.
19Ukraine has blamed Russia for a cyberattack last month on Ukrainian government websites.
20Experts say the damage from that internet attack - which affected servers at several agencies - was not considered serious.
21But cybersecurity company CrowdStrike recently said on its website it thinks such attacks are likely to continue as Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to "delegitimize" trust in Ukraine's government.
22Michele Markoff is the deputy coordinator for cyber issues for the U.S. State Department.
23She said she thinks it will require, what she calls, "muscular diplomacy" to end such "immoral" and "destabilizing" behavior.
24But it is unclear how such diplomatic efforts can be effectively carried out.
25Unlike nuclear arms, cyberweapons cannot easily be limited in treaties and they are difficult to identify.
26Violators are also not likely to be held responsible by the United Nations, since Russia and China both hold veto power on the Security Council.
27NATO approved a new U.S.-supported policy last year.
28Under the policy, repeated lower-level cyberattacks could be enough to activate NATO's Article 5.
29The article states that any attack on any of the alliance's 30 members is considered an attack on all.
30But NATO rules are currently not clear on exactly what kind of cyberattack would be covered under Article 5.
31Serhii Demediuk is with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.
32He told the AP the U.S. and other NATO partners have been helping Ukraine set up a separate cyber military organization.
33In November, Ukraine said it had discovered an eight-year spying operation by agents of Russia's FSB security service that involved more than 5,000 attempted cyberattacks.
34Ukraine's state-run news agency said the goal of the operation was to gain control over important infrastructure.
35This month, American software company Microsoft said the cyber operation is ongoing.
36It said it found evidence of attempts to break into Ukraine's military, judiciary and law enforcement systems.
37But Microsoft said no damage was discovered so far.
38I'm Bryan Lynn.
1International security experts have warned that internet attacks by major world powers on other governments could lead to a real war. But they say it is not easy to define what kind cyberattack would be considered an act of war. 2President Joe Biden said in July that if the United States ended up in a war with a major power it could "be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence." Biden made the comments to leaders of the U.S. intelligence community. 3Tensions are currently high between Russia and members of the NATO alliance over a possible conflict in Ukraine. Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. U.S. and NATO officials have expressed concern that Russia may invade Ukraine. 4Some Western officials have also warned about the danger of Russia possibly launching harmful cyberattacks against Ukraine or NATO allies. But experts say there is no clear line for how severe a cyberattack would have to be before it resulted in military action. 5"The rules are fuzzy," said Max Smeets, director of the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative, to The Associated Press. "It's not clear what is allowed, what isn't allowed," he added. 6The U.S. and other NATO members have threatened to put economic restrictions on Russia if it sends troops into Ukraine. But it is less clear if such restrictions would be put in place if Russia launched a serious cyberattack. 7Currently, arms control treaties do not provide detailed guidelines on how state-backed cyberattacks should be dealt with. It can also be difficult to quickly identify who is behind such attacks. Criminals and independent attackers can also work together with governments, making it harder to target specific blame. 8In 2015, major world powers and others agreed at the United Nations on a set of 11 voluntary guidelines for international cyber behavior. But those guidelines have mostly been ignored. 9Ukraine has blamed Russia for a cyberattack last month on Ukrainian government websites. Experts say the damage from that internet attack - which affected servers at several agencies - was not considered serious. 10But cybersecurity company CrowdStrike recently said on its website it thinks such attacks are likely to continue as Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to "delegitimize" trust in Ukraine's government. 11Michele Markoff is the deputy coordinator for cyber issues for the U.S. State Department. She said she thinks it will require, what she calls, "muscular diplomacy" to end such "immoral" and "destabilizing" behavior. 12But it is unclear how such diplomatic efforts can be effectively carried out. Unlike nuclear arms, cyberweapons cannot easily be limited in treaties and they are difficult to identify. Violators are also not likely to be held responsible by the United Nations, since Russia and China both hold veto power on the Security Council. 13NATO approved a new U.S.-supported policy last year. Under the policy, repeated lower-level cyberattacks could be enough to activate NATO's Article 5. The article states that any attack on any of the alliance's 30 members is considered an attack on all. But NATO rules are currently not clear on exactly what kind of cyberattack would be covered under Article 5. 14Serhii Demediuk is with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. He told the AP the U.S. and other NATO partners have been helping Ukraine set up a separate cyber military organization. 15In November, Ukraine said it had discovered an eight-year spying operation by agents of Russia's FSB security service that involved more than 5,000 attempted cyberattacks. Ukraine's state-run news agency said the goal of the operation was to gain control over important infrastructure. 16This month, American software company Microsoft said the cyber operation is ongoing. It said it found evidence of attempts to break into Ukraine's military, judiciary and law enforcement systems. But Microsoft said no damage was discovered so far. 17I'm Bryan Lynn. 18The Associated Press reported on this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English. 19_____________________________________________ 20Words in This Story 21consequence - n. the result of an action or situation 22breach - n. an action that breaks a rule, agreement or law 23fuzzy - adj. confusing and not clear 24allow - v. to permit 25delegitimize - v. make something seen as not valid or acceptable 26destabilize - v. to make a government, area or political group lose power or control 27infrastructure - n. the basic equipment and structures (such as roads and bridges) that are needed for a country or area 28We want to hear from you. Write to us in the Comments section, and visit our Facebook page.